The NBA draft is nine days away, where dreams will be made, all the hard work these athletes have put in since they were little will all be worth it. This draft is a very interesting one to say the least, after pick seven or eight it’s a crapshoot. This draft has very little depth and is top heavy. Will someone outside the lottery likely show early success? Yes. But many scouts are struggling to find that diamond in the rough. Here are the eight guys I think will have long-lasting and successful careers in the NBA.
Cameron Johnson-UNC
Cameron Johnson was the most underrated player in college basketball this season. Honestly want can’t this guy do? This season he averaged 16.9 PPG, 5.8 RPG, 2.4 APG, while shooting 50.6 percent from the field and 45.7 percent from three. Although Johnson is 23 years old, he can come into the NBA and impact your team immediately on both sides of the floor. This season Johnson averaged 1.2 SPG and 19th in Defensive Win Shares. Johnson also has good size at 6’9 with a 6’10 wingspan which contributed to his defensive rating being under 100. If Johnson can gain weight and become a little quicker off the dribble he will thrive in the league and be a valuable asset to any team that drafts him. If not, he will likely just be a 3 and D guy that comes off the bench. Johnson will bring maturity and high IQ to any team that drafts him, many scouts have him going in the 20-30s range so look for teams like the Spurs or Jazz to draft him. If he goes to a team that can put him in the right system, you’re looking a guy that could be a key contributor to a team for 10 plus years.
Talen Horton-Tucker-Iowa State
Horton-Tucker might be the most interesting prospect in this draft other than Bol Bol from Oregon. Tucker is built like forward but has the skills of a guard, he’s also the youngest player in this draft and won’t turn 19 till the end of November. At 6’4 238 pounds with a 7’1 wingspan he is built for the physicality of the NBA and has the length to finish over defenders at the rim. What I like so much about his game is that he is a stat sheet filler, he is always doing something that will contribute to his team’s success. This season he averaged 11.8 PPG, 4.9 RPG, 2.3 APG and 1.3 SPG. When motivated Tucker has shown upside as a defender, as he has the length to get into passing lanes and has the strength to bump defenders of their spot from going to the rim. Tucker is far from a finished product as he will need to improve his shooting percentages. I think some time in the G-league will do wonders for him. If he develops properly, he could turn into a fine two-way player.
Ty Jerome-Virginia
If you’re looking for a big guard that always seems to make the right play as a distributor and willing tough defender, well Ty Jerome is your guy. Jerome plays at his own pace and doesn’t allow defenders to speed him up. He has a knack for getting by defenders with hesitation dribbles and when the big moment arrives, he rarely makes mistakes. What is so impressive about his game is that he turns the ball over less than 15 percent of his possessions. For example, in the National Championship game he made one of the gutsiest and clutches decisions I have ever seen. UVA is down three and instead of taking the easy layup as he gets by a Tech defender, he looks off another Tech defender and puts the ball right in the shooting pocket of Deandre Hunter as he knocks down the game tying three-point shot. Over his three-year career at UVA, he has gotten significantly better but in his junior year he averaged 13.6 PPG, 4.2 RPG, 5.5 APG while shooting 39 percent from three. Jerome reminds me of Greivis Vasquez with a little Andre Miller in his game. What Jerome lacks in athleticism he more than makes up for it with creativity as a ball handler. Offensively he is very complete as he can finish with both hands around the rim, can post up smaller guards, one of the best spot-up shooters in college basketball and what I love the most is his swagger and confidence. Jerome will be a steal for any team that drafts him and will make an immediate impact day one.
Dylan Windler-Belmont
Belmont had a great season in the OVC and unfortunately lost to Maryland in a nail-bitter in the first round. A big part of their success was Dylan Windler. Windler at 6’8 200 pounds is a great athlete and plays above the rim contributed to him averaging 10.8 RPG he also had 1.9 offensive rebounds per game that lead to 23 second chance buckets. He also tested well at the combine amongst other players at his position, Windler has a 6’10 wingspan with an 8’ 8.5″ standing reach. He also has a 2.94 second shuttle and a 37.5″ max vertical. Windler has a phenomenal season as he averaged 21.3 PPG, 2.5 APG while shooting 54 percent from the field and 42.9 percent from three. Windler played in a fast pace offense at Belmont which allowed him to be able to start fast breaks when he got the rebound, often he would attack the defense on the break where he 74.5 percent of his shots at the rim and when he got fouled, he made 84.7 percent of his free-throws. The Belmont stand-out will also bring a high IQ to the next level he has a great understanding of when and how to come off screens, also when to cut back-door. Not to mention he’s a low mistake player he only averaged 2.1 turnovers despite being a big part of Belmont’s offense. If he can gain weight to fill out his frame, he will be a very good NBA player for years to come and could turn into a Shane Battier or Andrei Kirilenko type of player.
PJ Washington-Kentucky
A year ago, if you would have asked me or NBA scouts would PJ Washington be a potential lottery pick or a guy that could play in the NBA for years to come the answer would probably be no. Washington might be the most improved player in college basketball this past year. He improved his stats in every statistical category. As a sophomore averaged 15.2 PPG, 7.5 PG, 1.2 BPG, while shooting 52.2 percent from the field and 42.3 percent from three. From his freshmen year till now, he has matured so much as a player and it showed drastically in key moments when Kentucky needed him. He was true leader which is the main reason why Kentucky made it to the Sweet 16. Washington has improved his range as a shooter and can score in the low-post. At 6’8 230 he is built for the NBA; he is able to take contact and finish well around the rim. He also is a great athlete and plays above the rim on both sides of the ball. As the NBA has changed to position-less basketball, this style of play is catered to him and will allow Washington to have a long career especially if he continues to shoot the three ball well. Washington game reminds me of a more offensively polished Carl Landry or David West. Expect the Kentucky Star to in the middle to late first round.
Tremont Waters-LSU
The Point Guard position is arguably the most competitive position with the most depth in the NBA, with that being said if you’re a team that needs depth at that position well Tremont Waters is guy for you. Waters is great on both ends of the floor as he can score in bunches and be a pest of defense. He was 2nd in the NCAA at 2.9 steals per game and brought home the SEC defensive player of the year award. The LSU star point guard had a great season as he led the Tigers to a 28-7 overall record and were one of the top 15 most efficient offenses in the country. Not to mention over his career he averaged 15.6 PPG, 5.9 APG, 3.1 RPG while shooting 34 percent from three. For Waters to be successful at the next level he will need to clean up how often he turns the ball over, he coughed it up 3.5 times per game which led to a less than 2 to 1 assist to turnover ratio. He is a high-risk, high-reward passer, which comes from his aggressive style of play. However, that is usually an issue young guards have coming to the league and usually can get cleaned up pretty quickly depending how they adjust to the speed of the game. Waters is a good catch and shooter as he scored 99 points on 75 catch and shoot opportunities, which translates to an offensive rating of 132.0. What separates Waters from most guards in the draft is his ability to get his shot off in traffic and his crafty dribbling skills that allow him to get into the lane at will. Waters is a small, but plays bigger than his size and will compete, he has a game similar to DJ Augustine. If he can shoot the ball more consistently and cut down on his turnovers, he will be a valuable backup point guard for years to come that could maybe win a sixth-man of the year award one day.
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