Throughout college basketball there are several top 100 players that rule the sport, making top play after top play. Many of these players will end up going to the NBA and likely have successful careers.
Well what about the guys that are not ranked as high? The guys who don’t have big Division I schools calling them and begging them to be part of their programs?
Although the rankings are important and interesting, they are not the end all be all. One could make the argument they are overrated and are not close to the whole story. What the rankings won’t tell you is the player’s work ethic or potential. They sometimes aren’t fair to kids from smaller areas or kids that don’t play on top AAU teams.
For example, the area of Lubbock in the past 10 years has only sent 7-10 high school basketball players D1, and only one of them went to a Power 5 school — Texas Tech’s Jarrett Culver.
Over the past few years the rankings have significantly under-valued and overrated talent. In the past 13 years there have been at least 8 NBA players that have made All-Star teams and All-NBA teams that were not top 100 recruits. The big names are former MVP’s Stephen Curry and Russell Westbrook, All-Stars Paul George, Jimmy Butler and Damian Lillard.
From the years of 1998 to 2013 there were 1,563 players ranked in the top 100 only, 29 percent of them were drafted, which is about 445, and only 27 percent made it past their two-year contracts which equals out to 414 according to RSCI and The Pudding.
Therefore, maybe we need to re-evaluate how we grade high-school talent. In the upcoming draft, the predicted number two overall pick will be star guard Ja Morant from Murray State, who wasn’t even a 3-star recruit. He actually was found in an auxiliary gym on accident when Murray State assistant coach Matt McMahon spotted him while looking for a snack.
What rankings don’t show you is work ethic, and that is the biggest component to becoming a great player. Since the one and done era has started, there have only been two teams that have won a national championship with man contributors who were freshmen — the 2012 Kentucky team led by Anthony Davis and the 2015 Duke team led by Jahlil Okafor and Tyus Jones. The Final Four has been dominated by veteran players, not one-and-done caliber athletes. In the 2019 Final Four, three teams had only one freshman play significant minutes for their respective teams in Texas Tech guard Kyler Edwards, Virginia guard Kihei Clark and Michigan States swing man Aaron Henry. Not one of those guys will be one-and-done players and none of them averaged over six points.
Take a look at some of the best teams across the country this past season. The Tennesse Volunteers were ranked No. 1 for a good part of the season and did not have one top 100 recruit. Texas Tech only had one top 100 recruit that played significant minutes for them in Brandone Francis and even he stayed all four years after transferring from Florida. Kansas State finished at the 19th spot of coaches’ poll and they did not have one top 100 player. Houston, ranked No. 12, only had one top 100 recruit. Florida State, Gonzaga, Wisconsin and Purdue only had two kids ranked in the top 100. As the one-and-done era has become more popular, we have been tricked into thinking top 100 recruits are the end-all be-all. However, the coaches that do more with less and develop their players need to be the front runners of college basketball like Chris Beard, Rick Barnes and Kelvin Sampson. No disrespect to the Calipari’s, Kryzewski’s of the world, but there are other coaches that need more recognition for what they are doing with their programs without highly recruited rosters.
In the Power 5 conferences there were 66 players selected to an All-Conference team, only 36 of them were ranked in the top 100 in their respective high school classes which is about 54 percent. I think it is time we reexamine the high school rankings, many of the players have a lot of hype but no substance. In the 2014 NBA Draft, out of the first 30 picks, 19 of them had some experience in the G-League, 13 of which were former top 100 players. Let’s make our rankings more complete. Let us add intangibles to the system. Let’s be more comprehensive and not just who looks good. Let’s take a look at more skill and less size and athleticism. Not everyone is Zion Williamson or LeBron James. There are Jarrett Culver’s, Ja Morant’s, and Zhaire Smith’s just waiting to be signed.
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