So far this spring, the South Plains has been spoiled with ‘uneventful’ weather, while the rest of the greater Southern Plains has experienced huge hail, damaging winds, and violent tornadoes. However, things will begin to change as early as Thursday afternoon.
Gusty southeasterly winds Wednesday night and Thursday morning will help usher a much-more moist air mass into west Texas. This is one of many ingredients that could lead to a stormy Thursday. A dry-line will develop across the central South Plains, while a weak cold front slowly moves into the region from the north and east.
The dry-line and weak cold front will both serve as a ‘focus’ for thunderstorm development. Exactly where these two boundaries lie across the South Plains will be crucial in determining who has the greatest chance of severe weather. At the moment, it appears communities north and east of Lubbock have the greatest odds of seeing severe weather late Thursday.
Timing wise, storms will initially develop between Noon and 4 PM. These storms will be isolated. This is when the tornado threat will be highest. However, as the afternoon wears on, more storms will develop and an overall ‘line of storms’ could take-shape by early Thursday evening. At this point, the main severe weather threats will be large hail, damaging winds, and flash flooding.
The Storm Prediction Center has placed all of the South Plains under a ‘Slight Risk’ of severe weather, and the Rolling Plains under a ‘Moderate Risk’.
It is possible that, while not severe, thunderstorm activity will last well into Thursday night. Of course, severe weather is not wanted, but this event could provide very beneficial rainfall to our part of the state.
Graphic courtesy NWS Lubbock.
Severe Weather Terminology:
Severe Thunderstorm Watch ~ Conditions are favorable for the development of severe thunderstorms.
Severe Thunderstorm Warning ~ Severe weather is imminent or occurring.
Tornado Watch ~ Conditions are favorable for the development of tornadoes
Tornado Warning ~ A tornado is imminent or occurring.
Remember, you need to have a severe weather ‘safe-spot’ and action plan prior to severe weather affecting your area. The safest place to be in severe weather is below ground, in a basement or storm cellar. However, if this is not an option, a window-less, interior room of a strong building or single family home is best. Crouch down, shield your head, and cover yourself with pillows and blankest once in your ‘safe room’.
Also, remember that it is best to have multiple ways to receive the latest severe weather watches and warnings, such as a NOAA weather radio, television, radio, smart phone app, or access to social media.
Other than the potential severe weather event, highs will be in the lower 90’s with gusty afternoon winds.
Wreck ‘Em,
Cutter Martin
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