Strong Storms on Friday?

Friday                        Saturday                               Sunday

Hi 73                           Hi 62                                      Hi 51

Lo 47                           Lo 44                                     Lo 29

*PM Storms?            *Windy/Dusty                    * Much Colder/Windy

Forecast model have come into agreement over the past couple of days, on Friday being favorable for the development of isolated strong thunderstorms. While storms won’t be widespread, nor particularly severe, there is a chance for strong to severe thunderstorms beginning Friday afternoon. Strong storm chances will then taper off early Saturday morning. Below is the ‘Convective Outlook” issued by the Storm Prediction Center on Thursday afternoon.

Portions of the South Plains are under a ‘Slight Risk’ for severe thunderstorms on Friday afternoon.

The biggest threat with any thunderstorms that do develop will be winds >60 mph and large hail, possibly over 1 inch in diameter (Quarters). Light rain and drizzle will originally develop under dense cloud cover Friday morning, possibly lasting through early afternoon. The image below is a snap-shot of what the NAM (North American Mesoscale) model thinks the radar will look like at 9 AM Friday morning…

NAM weather model shows light rain/drizzle (outlined in red) across a large portion of Texas on Friday morning.

While I don’t believe there will be as much rain as this model is predicting across Texas tomorrow morning, the general idea of cloudy skies along with off an on drizzle will likely verify across the South Plains. As the day progresses, skies may briefly clear, allowing the development of strong thunderstorms along a developing dry-line, to the west of Lubbock. The image below is another ‘forecasted’ radar snap-shot, this time by Tech’s own WRF model. It indicates isolated strong thunderstorms developing west of Lubbock, then moving east into the metro area through Friday evening.

Area circled in red is likely to see developing thunderstorms by Friday evening, with the black arrows indicating the direction that thee storms will move.

All in all, while chances of dangerous severe weather are not high tomorrow, keep an eye to the sky and radio tuned to 88.1 The Raider, for the latest severe weather warnings, as well s checking the website for updates at http://www.ktxtfm.org/raider/ .

Have a great end to the work week,

Cutter Martin (KTXT Weather)