Tuesday Wednesday Thursday
Hi 58° Hi 53° Hi 58°
Lo 26° Lo 39° Lo 29°
*Windy/Inc. Clouds * AM Drizzle/PM storms ( 60 %) * Clearing & Windy
Tuesday will mark the end of a stretch of very nice weather, which we have enjoyed over the past few days. A storm system is approaching from the west and will begin to influence west Texas weather Tuesday. Strong southerly winds will increase through the day, gusting over 30 mph by Tuesday evening. These winds will usher moisture into the region from the southeast. Along with the increase in moisture, winds will cause patchy areas of blowing dust, especially across rural area. Clouds will begin to stream into the South Plains by afternoon, with skies becoming completely overcast by Tuesday night.
The combination of higher moisture levels and lift from an approaching area of low pressure will lead to dense cloud cover and rain showers on Wednesday morning. The image below is what the TTU WRF (Tech’s in-house computer model) thinks the radar will look like at 2 AM Wednesday morning.
Texas Tech WRF depicting light showers, mainly across the southeastern South Plains early Wednesday morning.
Many other forecast models show precipitation off and on throughout Wednesday afternoon. As the area of low pressure passes just to the northwest of the South Plains, a cold front will move into the area from the west on Wednesday evening. This is when a line of strong thunderstorms could form west of Lubbock and move into the city Wednesday night. Many forecast models depict this very possibility, like the ‘NAM’ model below.
The NAM (North American Mesoscale) Model shows a line of strong thunderstorms developing west of Lubbock by 9 PM; moving into the city shortly after.
At the moment, the Storm Prediction Center has not placed the South Plains under a risk for severe thunderstorms. However, conditions could become favorable for the develop men of strong thunderstorms, with high winds and hail, by Wednesday afternoon. Stay tuned to the latest forecasts for further updates on this developing weather situation.
Wreck ‘Em,
Cutter Martin (KTXT Weather)
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