Good afternoon,
Over the past couple of days, forecast models have slowly come into agreement on the fact that a strong winter storm will move out of the desert southwest and affect a large portion of the southern plains Sunday and Monday. However, the exact track of this area of low pressure is still unknown. There are two distinct options:
Option #1) The storm system could take a more northerly track sparing the South Plains and greater Lubbock area from any significant snowfall. it would still be cold and windy with scattered flurries, but most accumulating snowfall would stay north of the Lubbock Metro area.
The red ‘L’ represents an area of low pressure that will impact the Southern Plains late this weekend. If it takes a more northerly track , light snow (light blue) as well as the heavy snow (dark blue) would largely stay north of Lubbock.
Option # 2) This strengthening area of low pressure could always take a more southerly route as it move east. This would put the South Plains, as well as the city of Lubbock, in a more favorable position for strong winds and heavy snow.
If this closed area of low pressure takes a more southerly route through TX/OK, then Lubbock would be in a much more favorable position for widespread moderate to heavy snow and strong winds. Light snow (light blue) would have the chance to affect the DFW area and heavier snow (dark blue) would be experienced across the northern half of the South Plains.
Timing:
The first affect from this storm system will be felt Sunday morning, as winds begin to increase out ahead of it. Cloud cover will slowly increase through the day as well, with precipitation likely breaking out across the Texas Panhandle by 6 PM. Rain and snow will then progress south and eastward through the evening. The northern South Plains will be the first to experience precipitation. It could begin as rain, but will quickly change over to snow as the approaching storm causes air above the surface to cool and a cold front rushes south; causing temperatures at the surface to cool as well. By midnight, precipitation could begin to fall in Lubbock. While nothing is set-in-stone at this point, precipitation would likely exit the region by noon on Monday.
Winds:
Precipitation won’t be the only impact Texas feels from this strong winter storm. As the pressure drops under the core of this system, winds will become very gusty. In fact, frequent wind gusts between 40 and 50 mph by early Monday orning are likely. This will make for wind chills in the teens and widespread blowing snow, where snow accumulates, reducing visibility to near zero. Even after the snow moves eastward, winds will stay gusty through Monday afternoon.
Precipitation Amounts:
This is the most tricky part of the forecast. The track of this storm system will be crucial when forecasting snowfall amounts. Generally speaking, areas north of a Mulshoe-Plainview-Childress line have the best chance of receiving significant snowfall accumulation; possibly more than 3 inches. Snowfall amounts will decrease as you head further south, with Lubbock possibly seeing 1-2 inches of accumulation by Monday afternoon.
So far, the National Weather Service in Lubbock has not placed Lubbock proper under any winter weather watches, warnings, or advisories. However, we have been placed under a ‘Special Weather Statement’ as of Saturday afternoon; which can be found at http://tinyurl.com/aack25w . A full view of what has been issued by Lubbock and surrounding weather offices is shown below.
A picture of any watches,warnings, or advisories issued by the National Weather Service as of 4:30 PM Saturday afternoon.
Again, it must be stressed that this is an evolving situation. Storms similar to this one have thrown forecasters curveballs in the past, even earlier this same winter. However, I suggest that you begin to prepare for any hazardous travel conditions which could be felt across the South Plains as early as Sunday night. There will likely be many more updates on the KTXT weather page between now and when this system arrives late Sunday.
Stay Tuned,
Cutter Martin (KTXT Weather)
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