Good evening,
Lubbock managed to reach a high of 39°, after a Tuesday morning low of 22°. Both of these temperatures are well below average. In fact Lubbock’s high temperature has been below the average of 53° for nearly a week; excluding Monday’s high of 55°. Cool temperatures look to continue on Wednesday, with Lubbock only making it into the lower 40’s by afternoon. High clouds may become more present on Wednesday as moisture streams into west Texas from the Eastern Pacific. Even with strong southwesterly flow, winds will remain light between 5-15 mph.
This leads us into a very complicated weather pattern,which will unfold across west Texas beginning late Wednesday night. High clouds will likely become fairly thick across the region by evening, which could keep temperatures in the mid 20’s vs. upper teens on Thursday morning. As this moisture continues to stream across the region ahead of an approaching storm system; precipitation may begin to develop across the mountains of northwestern Mexico and southwest Texas. This area of rain and snow will then begin an eastward trek across the state of Texas through Friday afternoon. At this time, it appears that the lower levels of the atmosphere will be very dry across the South Plains. These dry lower levels will likely be the biggest limiting factor for organized precipitation in Lubbock. Though areas along and south of a line from Seminole to Snyder appear to have the best shot at receiving snowfall between Thursday morning and Friday afternoon. The image below is the snowfall accumulation predicted by the NAM forecast model as of its 6 PM run on Tuesday evening. This particular model keeps all accumulations south and west of the Lubbock area; favoring the Davis Mountains and greater Big Bend region.
Forecast models have only recently suggested a much stronger disturbance and widespread snow across southwest Texas. There will likely be further adjustments within the forecast models before Thursday morning.
Stay Tuned,
Cutter Martin
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