Good evening,
As is typical, forecast models have changed their solutions regarding an approaching winter storm. It now appears that the Davis Mountains and greater Big Bend region will see a significant snowfall. Some areas in southwest Texas could end up seeing over 8 inches of accumulation in isolated areas. As this storm system moves out of New Mexico, the South Plains may also get in on the action. Though it appears any accumulations will remain south of our region; where a good 1-3 inches could fall across the Midland/Odessa area. Because of the magnitude of snowfall accumulations expected across southwest Texas, many National Weather Service offices have hoisted an array of winter weather products. The counties shaded in pink are under a ‘Winter Storm Warning’, while counties shaded in blue are under a ‘Winter Weather Advisory’.
As of this afternoon, the National Weather Service office in Lubbock has not issued any winter weather products, as it appears the greatest chances for snowfall accumulation will remain south of the greater Lubbock area. However, the track of this incoming area of low pressure will be crucial in determining who sees snow and how much they will receive It would not be surprising to see the Lubbock NWS issue a winter weather advisory for the southwestern South Plains sometime tomorrow as it becomes clearer which areas will receive the most snow. Below is a snap- shot of the projected radar reflectivity by the TTU-WRF forecast model. It is depicting a band of snow moving into the greater Lubbock area by 5 AM Friday morning. While forecast models never verify with 100% accuracy, they help forecasters get a better grasp on the general weather pattern for a given time frame.
Snow or not, dense mid level cloud cover will likely overtake the entire area by mid-morning Thursday. This deck of clouds will keep high temperatures chilly; in the upper 30’s across Lubbock after a morning low in the upper teens Thursday morning. This same cloud cover will act as a ‘blanket’ Thursday night keeping temperatures from falling into the teens. If clouds are especially thick, Lubbock will likely only fall into the mid to upper 20’s. Low temperatures will be cooler north and warmer south. The most likely time period for central portions of the South Plains to see snowfall would be between 6 PM Thursday evening and noon on Friday.
After Thursday night’s potential snow event, another much stronger storm system will move towards west Texas by the middle of next week. It is still too soon to determine the specific impacts that this storm will have on our region. Though, it appears it could be a significant storm, with effects felt over a large portion of the country.
Stay warm,
Cutter Martin (KTXT Weather)
i
Loading ...