Weather for Thursday 1/24/13

Thursday’s weather forecast will be quite tricky. A shallow layer of cool air at the surface will ‘back’ into the South Plains from the northeast through the day. What makes this upcoming forecast so hard is determining how fast it moves through the area, how cold temperature are behind it, and if there will be any precipitation with this front. For the time being, it looks like areas northeast of Lubbock will be the coolest, with the front likely stalling along the Caprock or central South Plains. This means that Lubbock’s high temperatures will again be mild; with highs in the mid 60’s. On the other hand, northeastern areas may be stuck in the 40’s! Places south and west of a Plainview-Lubbock-Snyder line may even reach high temperatures in the upper 70’s! Skies ahead of the cold front will remain mostly sunny, but clouds will thicken behind the front. Winds will be relatively light, no matter which side of the cold front you’re on; peak gusts shouldn’t top 20 mph through the day.

Another wrench thrown in the forecast is the precipitation that some models are showing developing along and just behind this weak cold front as it slowly move southwest across the South Plains. It appears that if any precipitation develops, it will remain light and isolated Though, the precipitation that does fall could be of the frozen variety. Mostly likely in the form of a few flurries or freezing drizzle.

By Thursday evening, the cold front will move through the entire region, leading to a much cooler Thursday evening and Friday.

The image below is a graphical representation of Thursday’s forecasted highs across the South Plains, issued by the National Weather Service Wednesday evening. Even without the drawn-in cold front, it is obvious where this boundary will lie across the area. Take a look at the two circled cities and their forecasted high temperatures; what a difference!