Monday will be the last pleasant day across the area, until Friday. Cloud cover will gradually thicken through Monday with skies becoming completely overcast by evening. Due to the clouds, high temperatures will be held down; likely only flirting with the 50 mark by mid afternoon. Southerly winds between 10-15 mph are expected as a storm system approaches from the southwest.
Strong Storm System:
By Tuesday evening, a potent storm system will bring a variety of hazardous weather conditions to the state of Texas. Initially, Tuesday will feature thick cloud cover and highs in the mid 40’s. Though as this storm system moves closer to the region , an area of heavy rain will move into the South Plains between 8 PM and 11 PM Tuesday evening. This band of precipitation will affect southern areas first, then will overspread all of west Texas by early Wednesday morning. This first round of precipitation will be mostly rain. However, with temperatures in the upper 30’s Tuesday night through Wednesday, it’ll still feel miserable outside. A brief break in precipitation may occur across the greater Lubbock area Wednesday afternoon. Then another period of precipitation is likely Wednesday night as the area of low pressure moves almost directly over the South Plains. It is with this 2nd area of precipitation that frozen precipitation becomes more likely. At the moment, it appears that areas northwest of Lubbock and closer to the border stand the best chance of seeing frozen precipitation. However, only a few degree difference in temperature could mean the difference between heavy rain and heavy snow.
This precipitation forecast was issued by the HPC on Sunday afternoon. As you can see, this storm will produce very heavy rainfall over a large area of real estate through the next 4 days. As of this forecast, most of west Texas stands to receive over 3/4 of an inch of rain. Isolated areas east of Lubbock could see over 2 inches of rain; with areas along and east of the interstate 35 corridor possibly seeing over 6 inches of rainfall! While we are in a drought, if heavy rainfall comes down in a short amount of time, there could be some flooding issues across the region.
The Lubbock National Weather Service office released this graphic on Sunday afternoon. This graphical forecast shows all of west Texas having the potential to receive heavy rain. It also addresses the chance of frozen precipitation across he South Plains Wednesday night; favoring northwestern areas.
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Cutter Martin
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