Good Morning,
As of 1AM Thursday morning, the temperature was sitting at relatively balmy 45°. With breezy southwesterly winds and a few clouds, temperatures may only fall into the mid-30’s across Lubbock by sunrise. Your Thursday afternoon will feature high temperatures in the lower 60’s under continued mostly sunny skies. Similar to Wednesday, winds will be breezy; blowing out of the southwest in the 15-25 mph range.
Extended Outlook:
A strong storm system moving out the southwestern United States will begin to affect the entire South Plains region by late Thursday with increasing southwesterly winds. On Friday, southwesterly winds will continue to pick up in intensity; likely gusting near 40 mph by late in the day. Blowing dust will likely be a problem through the day Friday as these strong winds will easily pick up the large amounts of dry soil which now lay unprotected after the cotton harvest earlier this Fall. These strong winds are associated with the incoming low pressure system’s ‘dry-slotted’ region; or “A zone of dry (and relatively cloud-free) air which wraps east- or northeastward into the southern and eastern parts of a synoptic scale or mesoscale low pressure system”. However, there is a glimmer of hope. Besides strong winds, Friday’s storm system will also draw in moisture through all levels of the atmosphere. As the System moves even closer, lift will overspread the region and could act to ‘lift’ this moisture forming more clouds and eventually precipitation. If this rain were to fall, it could act to mitigate Friday’s strong wind threat, lessen the threat of blowing dust, and give our grounds a desperately needed watering. Keep in mind that east of Lubbock towards the Dallas and Austin areas; there is a much greater chance of receiving rainfall.
Below is a graphic developed by the National Weather Service office in Lubbock which shows the currently forecasted evolution of Friday’s storm system. As you can see, there will be an opportunity for Lubbock to see some rain, but strong winds and dry air are also possibility as the ‘dry-slot’ moves over Lubbock.
Forecast models are still having trouble modeling the specific impacts which may be felt across the South Plains by this system. Continue to monitor the latest updates as our forecast could undergo some changes as this disturbance gets closer.
-Cutter Martin (KTXT Weather)
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