Weather for Sunday 12/9/12

Finally a day with exciting weather!

A strong cold front will begin to approach the northern South Plains by early Sunday morning, clearing the entire area by 8AM. Along this front winds will abruptly switch to a north-northwesterly direction and increase to 15-25 mph; with gusts approaching 40 mph by mid-afternoon. These strong winds will create areas of blowing dust, which could lower visibility in isolated area. Also, if driving large vehicles such as trucks or large vans; be mindful that traveling on east to west oriented roads could be hazardous due to strong northerly cross-winds. Skies will be partly cloudy prior to the front, but will thicken, lower, and increase in coverage following the cold front. Our lows Sunday morning will be in the lower 30’s, with temperatures struggling to reach the lower 40’s by mid-afternoon. Below is an hourly weather graphic developed by the Lubbock National Weather Service; with the red line in the first bar representing the temperature for a specific hour through the day Sunday:

The third, and most exciting aspect of this storm system involves our chances for snow! The mostly likely time to see snow in Lubbock proper will be between 1oPM Sunday night and 6AM Monday morning. However, this will not be a big snow event for Lubbock; total accumulations in Lubbock probably will not exceed 1/4 inch. This is largely due to the storm system’s fast movement and very dry lower levels of the atmosphere across the South Plains. Because of this dry air at the surface, most of the snowflakes will be ‘used’ to moisten the lower levels of the atmosphere and will actually evaporate before even reaching the ground. If this were a slower moving storm system the snowflakes would eventually be able to saturate the lower levels and start reaching the surface at a significant rate; however this will likely not be the case Sunday night because the storm system will be leaving the region prior to ‘saturation’.Though, due to the moderate strength of this system, still expect at least a 30 minute to one-hour period of light snow or flurries across Lubbock. With temperatures well below freezing during the time the snow will potentially be falling; even very light snow could cause some isolated slick spots on roadways across the South Plains. Also, with Low temperatures falling into the upper teens by Monday morning, any sprinklers or outdoor watering features could make roadways hazardous if the water is blown onto the pavement, and allowed to freeze. It would be best to turn off any sprinklers prior to temperatures falling below freezing Sunday evening. Below is a map of expected snowfall totals by 6AM Monday morning.Areas along and north of the gray line, including Lubbock;will likely only see a dusting. Areas along and north of the light blue line, including Plainview;will likely see up to a half an inch. Areas along and north of the blue line, including Clovis will likely see at least an inch.

My own personal forecast, not back by the National Weather Service.