Happy Monday,
Following the infiltration of drier air on Sunday evening; temperatures on Monday morning will be cooler than past mornings. If winds relax enough overnight Sunday, Lubbock’s Monday morning temperatures will bottom-out in the upper 20’s.If widns stay strong through the night, lows may not even hit the freezing mark. Due to the air over the region being very dry, temperatures will warm quickly after sunrise Monday, with a high temperatures of 65° expected in Lubbock under mostly clear skies! Westerly winds will again be elevated on your Monday afternoon; sustained between 15-20 mph with gusts reaching 30 mph by late afternoon.
Monday night will be another chilly one, with low temperatures again anticipated to be in the upper 20’s by Tuesday morning under mostly clear skies and much lighter winds.
Wednesday Wind Storm?
Forecast models are still pointing to a very windy Wednesday afternoon. At this time it appears that winds could gust well over 50, possibly 60 mph by late in the day with widespread blowing dust accompanying these strong winds. However, there are some factors which could limit the intensity of these winds. The actual track of this storm system plays a major role in determining exactly where the strongest winds will occur. Any deviation in the current forecast track could mean the difference between 35-40 mph gusts and 60 mph gusts in Lubbock. Also, there will be clouds present along and behind a strong cold front which will move through the South Plains during the day Wednesday. Clouds act as a limiting factor for strong winds, as they limit the amount of wind above ground which is allowed to make it down to the surface. As we get closer to this possible wind event, forecasters will begin to get a better idea of when and where the strongest winds will occur, as well as just how strong these winds will be.
Christmas Outlook?
Forecast models are continuing to struggle with the evolution of the weather pattern across the United States as he head into Christmas. Though ,these models are starting to agree that the upcoming holiday period could be cool and stormy for much of the nation. In fact the latest run of the ‘ECMWF’, or European forecast model; shows widespread cold and snow across the Southern Plains around Christmas. However, this is just one of two separate forecasts which are formulated by this specific model,daily. This most recent model run is also the first to show such a severe storm system impacting the Southern Plains, including Texas. Below is an image produced by the National Weather Service which shows the ‘average probabilities’ for a white Christmas for any given location across the country. This map was made using weather data from year’s past in combination with the number of white Christmases which were observed at a specific location.
As you can see Lubbock and surrounding areas have less than a 10% chance of experiencing a white Christmas on any given year. This is because between 1981 and 2010 Lubbock experienced very few Christmas days in which snow occurred. Being that this map was made using purely climatological data, the percentages it shows can not be applied to any specific winter season or weather pattern with much confidence. Could this Christmas’ weather pattern increase Lubbock’s odds at a white Christmas? It is too soon to tell, but certainly something to keep an eye on over the coming days!
Wreck ‘Em,
Cutter Martin (KTXT Weather)
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