Good Morning,
A strong cold front is currently moving southward through the South Plains. As of 11 PM Thursday evening, the front was located just south of Lubbock. Temperatures are already beginning to steadily fall; with Texas Tech campus sitting at 31°, 24° at Plainview, and 18° at Palo Duro. Behind this cold front, cold air will continue to filter into the region. Along with this colder air-mass; low clouds and freezing fog are a distinct possibility by early Friday morning. The image below shows very weak echoes being picked up by Lubbock’s radar. Most of what the radar is seeing isn’t reaching the ground, though fog, light drizzle, and perhaps a few snow flurries cannot be ruled out through mid-morning Friday.
By Friday morning, temperatures will be in the mid teens under extensive low and mid level cloud cover, as well as fog; possibly dense. Use extra caution as visibility could be reduced in areas of dense fog. A very thin layer of ice may also form on area roadways as drizzle accumulates on exposed surfaces and freezes overnight. By Friday afternoon, skies should clear allowing temperatures to warm into the mid/upper 30’s with northerly winds between 10-15 mph; calming by early evening. Friday night will be another cold one, likely bottoming out in the mid teens under excellent radiational cooling conditions; light winds and clear skies.
Looking Ahead:
It still appears that a strong area of low pressure will affect the region beginning Sunday December 30th. Ahead of this storm system, winds will blow out of the south and southwest, allowing tropical moisture from the eastern Pacific ocean to stream over Mexico and into Texas. At the same time another area of low pressure will begin to take shape off of the lower Texas coast; throwing even more moisture from the Gulf of Mexico into Texas. While this all means that there will be more than enough moisture to work with; the strength and timing of this storm system is still being called into question. The first image below is a snapshot of the ECMWF, or ‘European’ forecast model; which depicts a much slower moving,closed area of low pressure. This would mean a significant amount of precipitation across the area, much of which would be in the form of sleet/freezing rain/snow. Visually, this very deep storm system is depicted by the large bulge or ball like feature located in the desert southwest.
On the other hand, the GFS or ‘American Model’ has a much weaker, quicker moving storm system. This fast moving, relatively weak storm system would mean much less precipitation as it moves by the South Plains early next week. In the image below, you will notice that the bulge across the Southern Plains/Rockies is much less defined and further east than what is depicted by the European model. This would not bode well for significant precipitation in Lubbock.
While both models have their strengths and weaknesses, the European model tends to handle these types of storm systems with more accuracy. Though, we’ve been stuck in a very ‘fast-paced’ weather pattern for over a month now, which would give the GFS’ idea of a fast moving storm system more credence. All in all, at this point we are still in a wait-and-see mode. Expect a general turn toward wetter and continued colder weather as we finish out the weekend and head into early the following week and New Year’s day.
Wreck ‘Em,
Cutter Martin (KTXT Weather)
Loading ...