Good Afternoon,
Friday morning will feature temperatures in the upper 40’s to around 50°; warming into the lower 60’s by mid-afternoon.It appears that a significant wind event, and thunderstorms may occur on Friday. As of 3 PM Thursday afternoon, the National Weather service office has issued a ‘ High Wind Watch’ for Parmer,Castro,Swisher,Bailey,Lamb,hale,Cochran,Hockley,Lubbock,Yoakum,Terry, & Lynn counties which will go into effect on Friday afternoon. A High Wind Watch means that conditions are favorable for “high winds sustained over 40 mph, or gusting to over 58 mph for at-least one hour of time” (NWS) to occur within the next 12-24 hours. This watch will likely be upgraded to a warning later Thursday night or Friday morning as we get closer to the time of strongest winds. As of now, it appears that a cold front will move out of eastern New Mexico and begin affecting the western South Plains by 2 PM. Behind this front is where the greatest threat for strong winds will lie;while along and ahead of this front, it appears that conditions will be favorable for the development of scattered showers and thunderstorms. Below is a ‘snap-shot’ of the 12z (6am) run cycle of Texas Tech’s own TTU-WRF weather forecast model. The image shows what the forecast model ‘thinks’ the radar will look like at 18z;12 noon tomorrow. While this image may not verify with 100% accuracy;the general idea that there will be light rain showers around during the mid-morning hours on Friday, will likely be correct.
In fact, the Storm Prediction center has out-looked much of Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas for a very slight chance of severe thunderstorms on Friday afternoon. This is due to the interaction of the ‘upper air dynamics’; severe weather ingredients associated with this incoming storm system and elevated moisture values present across the Southern Plains. At this time, it appears that the main severe weather threats for northwest Texas will be damaging hail and high winds. However, this is an evolving situation which could change quickly as this storm system begins to impact the area Thursday night and Friday. Below is an image displaying where the Storm Prediction Center feels severe thunderstorms may occur. The time of greatest concern will be between 2 PM and 6 PM Friday afternoon; after the morning rain showers have moved east of the area and a cold front begins to move in from New Mexico, sparking new thunderstorms.
The National Weather Service office in Lubbock has a very user friendly website, which can be found at http://www.srh.noaa.gov/lub/. Be sure to check the National Weather Service, as well as the KTXT website ( http://www.ktxtfm.org/raider/) or Twitter @TheRaider881 for the latest weather updates.
-Cutter Martin (KTXT Weather)
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