Forecast for Wednesday 12/19/12

After Tuesday’s relatively calm winds, a high wind event is in the cards for your Wednesday. On Tuesday evening the National Weather service placed all of the South Plains, including Lubbock, under a ‘High Wind Warning’; going into effect at 11 AM and expiring at 10 PM Wednesday. This wind event is being caused by a storm system which is passing just to our north, placing the Texas panhandle and South Plains in a favorable position for severe wind gusts. Wednesday morning will begin clear and mild, with temperatures around 40 ° in Lubbock. Highs on Wednesday afternoon will also be well above average; likely topping out in the mid-60’s under continued mostly sunny skies. However, the important weather story for tomorrow will be the high winds. Below is a break-down of Wednesday’s wind event.

Timing:

Winds will be relatively calm on Tuesday night and prior to sunrise on Wednesday. Though, shortly after sunrise winds will increase rapidly as warming temperatures allow strong winds located just above the surface to ‘mix-down’ to ground level. By 9 AM winds will be sustained in the 15-25 mph range with gusts nearing 30 mph. By noon, sustained winds will be in the 35-45 mph range; with gusts possibly exceeding 65 mph. These strong winds will continue throughout Wednesday afternoon and evening, likely not relaxing until well after sunset Wednesday evening. Below is a forecast graphic produced by the National Weather Service Office in Lubbock which shows the expected winds in Lubbock on an hourly basis.Image Credit: NWS Lubbock

Intensity:

Wind gusts between 55-70 mph will be likely across the entire South Plains; with areas north and west of Lubbock being more likely to experience the strongest gusts. However, some atmospheric factors could limit wind gusts tomorrow afternoon; the most significant being cloud cover. As this strong storm system passes just to our north; clouds will wrap around the system and could move into the area from the north and west. While the chance is small, if these clouds move in and keep surface temperatures from warming to critical levels; the strongest winds will be kept from reaching the surface. However, even if there is extensive cloud cover present, winds would still gust over 50 mph.

Hazards:

This wind event will make travel around the area extremely hazardous. If at all possible, do not travel once the strongest winds set in; around 11 AM. Very low visibility will be a serious problem during the peak of this wind storm. Some locations could experience visibility values between 1/8 of a mile and 1 mile as these severe wind gusts loft enormous amounts of dust into the atmosphere. Wind gusts will also be strong enough to cause minor structural damage across town. Power-lines, roofs, siding, and fences are all susceptible to these damaging wind gust. As a preventative measure; bring in or secure all loose outdoor objects that could become flying debris in windy conditions. Other than low visibility and minor damage; driving on north-to-south or southwest-to-northeast oriented roadways will be very difficult as crosswinds blow across these roadways. This danger is even more alarming if driving a large vehicle; such as an 18-wheeler, moving van, travel van, large truck, etc. Lastly, Wednesday’s fire danger will be significant. In fact, the National Weather Service has also issued a ‘Red Flag Warning’ for most of the South Plains as very strong winds, dry vegetation, and low humidity values combine to produce dangerous fire weather conditions. Do not have open flames outdoors tomorrow; this includes cigarette butts. Even the smallest flame could be the cause of an explosive wildfire. Below is an image produced by the National Weather service, displaying the multiple hazards that will be present across northwest Texas on Wednesday.

Image Credit: NWS Lubbock

 

After Wednesday the winds will calm down significantly as we await our next storm system; slated to arrive around Christmas. Hopefully this system will provide precipitation and cooler temperatures rather than gusty winds.

 

Stay Safe,

Cutter Martin (KTXT Weather)

Leave a Reply